WinnerOdds new user history
19.12.2018, Miguel Figueres Moreno
In this article, we are introducing the new “User History”, where you can find the average results obtained with the bets placed by all the WinnerOdds Users.
In the WinnerOdds Betting History that we are showing since the beginning of WinnerOdds, all the matches with at least one bet from our users are included, and the odds correspond to the first bet placed. The bankroll considered is a constant bankroll, 1000€ by default although you can modify this value for the simulation. This results are difficult to achieve for any user, since for this purpose it would be necessary to dedicate 100% to betting, be very quick making bets, to have account in all bookmakers and also not be limited.
You can find the new User History in the Betting History section, in the second tab. In addition, we have maintained the Summary, Statistics and Results of the WinnerOdds Betting History under the “WO Betting History” tab.
How do we calculate the “User History”?
The new betting history has been called User History and consists on all pre-match bets over the Minimum Profitable Odds placed by our users. All the bets made by our users are added every day, both in euros and in stake units, and are divided by the number of users who have bet at least once that day, in order to obtain the average of picks, profit, units, wagered volume, yield, etc. Consequently, all the factors that affect the real bets are taken into account: automatically updated bankroll after each bet (since May 2018), dropping odds, bookmakers’ restrictions, real time dedication of the users, etc.
Therefore, it is possible that sometimes, when the results are worse than the average, the WinnerOdds Betting History shows positive results (more bets and higher odds), while the User History shows negative results, since the results of the hypothetical best possible user will be always better than those of the average user.
Last 3 months of the “WinnerOdds Betting History”
Last 3 months of the “User History”
In this way the users of WinnerOdds can compare their results with the average, and they can also see that we have overcome worse results:
Last 12 months of the “User History”
That’s why we always recommend to think in long term results. Remember the WinnerOdds 10 rules, like the one that talks about profitability being measured after hundreds (or thousands) of picks, or that the winning and losing streaks do not exist, it’s only variance.
Analysis of results
Regarding the statistics of the last year, we can see the following numbers extracted from the WinnerOdds betting history:
WinnerOdds Betting History. Last 12 months profit and statistics
and compare them with the User History results:
User History. Last 12 months profit and statistics
In view of this data, we can calculate the following results:
- The users followability of the number of bets with respect to the maximum possible, is 11.41 / 28.54 * 100 = 39.9%, on average.
- The followability regarding profit is similar, with 6636.9 / 19113.61 = 34.7%. The difference between 39.9% and 34.7% is mainly due to the fact that the average odds of the users bets are usually lower than the first bet’s share.
- The average yield of the last year is 4.22%. This yield is below the 8.07% obtained from the odds of the first bet of each match. This means that the sooner you bet, the better, although sometimes can also happens that the odds go up instead of dropping.
- The average bankroll of the last year, knowing the average profit of € 6,636.9 is equivalent to 243.51 units, is € 2725. Users who started the year with a larger bankroll, and new users that enter with approximately € 1,000, can see that their bankroll grows throughout the year, thanks to the automatic (or manual) update of the bank.
- The average bet size WinnerOdds Betting History is 23,678.16 / 10,331 = 2.29 units per bet, while the average user has an average bet size of 6,161.8 / 4,119.31 = 1.49 units. This difference is due in large part to the limitations, but as can be seen, thanks to the tool to totalize easily by betting in several bookmakers, we are able to bet, even with limitations, an approximate average of 1.49 / 2.29 * 100 = 65% of the recommended size. Although we must also take into account that, when betting on lower average odds, the recommended bet size is smaller, since we use a bet size based on Kelly’s formula.
- Perhaps an average yield of 4.22% may seem low, but thanks to a very high turnover of the bankroll, the total profit is large (compared to the subscription fee), since we are betting, on average, about 61 times our bank (more than one once per week) That is, approximately, a user with the average bank of € 2725 will bet € 167,940.74 in a year to earn € 6,636.
- The total annual fee of 12 * 79 € = 948 € with a monthly subscription (or 2 * 390 € = 780 € with biannual subscription) represents 14.3% (or 11.75%) of the average profit.
- The long term results are reached with more than 1000 picks, which are usually achieved in approximately 3-4 months (1000 / 11.41 = 87 days), although in December or January the number of bets is lower and therefore more months may be necessary.
In view of all the data obtained thanks to the User History, we can reach the following conclusions:
- The faster and more bets are made, the better, but there’s no need of being obsessed with reaching all bets, because even with a followability of 40% of the total bets, you get significant profit.
- The WinnerOdds method is based on a large bet volume (high number of bets and high bet size), being necessary to wait for the method to reach the long term results. If we had to propose a number, it would be at least 1000 picks (reached on average in about 3-4 months), although this does not mean that there can not be months with results below the average or with fewer picks.
- Even in spite of the bookmaker’s restrictions, thanks to the totalizing tool, which allows to spread the bets between several bookmakers in a very easy and comfortable way, you can continue betting a considerable volume, and therefore you can keep winning (although the time spent doing the bets will increase).
- It is very difficult for you to find another tipster or system that shows you so much REAL information about the followability of the bets and the results of its users. We always try to be as transparent as possible and share all the relevant information with our current (and future) users, both when having good and bad results.