Value Bets with Dynamic Minimum Profitable Odds
15.05.2018, Miguel Figueres Moreno
Improvement of the Winnerodds’ algorithm by including new information in the calculation of the Minimum Profitable Odds.
Since now, WinnerOdds estimated the probabilities of a tennis match based in a huge database of previous information. WinnerOdds used that estimation in order to determine the minimum profitable odds. Since the bookmakers published their own odds and until the beginning of the match, value bets were found according to the inefficiencies in the calculation of that odds.
However, during that time since WinnerOdds detects the value bets and the beginning of the match, the market is active and takes into account the latest news that influences the odds, changing their value and generating new opportunities to invest in Value Bets.
With the main objective of getting advantage of that changes, we noticed that we could improve the system if the calculation of the Minimum Profitable Odds included all the information that we could obtain from the gambling market.
The improvement consists on the Dynamic Minimum Profitable Odds that, starting from the initial value estimated by the WinnerOdds artificial neural networks, is updated continuously by including the new information from the market.
The new Dynamic Minimum Profitable Odds include automatic recalculation of their value according to new information about the monitored sports event since the publication of the opening odds until the closing odds.
Finding more bets and more value to bet on
The faster bookmakers offer their odds by estimating their own probabilities. These odds are offered normally as soon as possible so that the bettors have plenty of time to place their bets, and increase the total amount wagered.
During this time and until the match starts, bettors gradually place their bets trying to find some value. If enough bettors agree on their bets, the bookmakers slowly change their odds so that they remain balanced and still earn their commission irrespective of the result.
News about teams, players, weather or any other circumstances, especially if they can significantly affect the result of the sports event, can suddenly influence the decisions of the bettors and the odds can again become unbalanced.
In this case, the bookmakers are forced to quickly change the odds and try to adapt to the new bettors’ trends as fas as possible, increasing the value of the opposite odds in order to making them more attractive and encouraging them to bet on the opposite ‘unbalanced’ result.
Slow bookmakers inefficiencies after odds changes
The changes of the odds do not happen in all the bookmakers at the same time. When the odds change fast, there are new opportunities in the slow bookmakers that have not adapted their odds to the new market situation.
Until now, all the information generated after the publication of the opening odds was not taken into accout by WinnerOdds. As the Minimum Profitable Odds were static, we were losing some value bets, and also we could not react when the forecasts lost their value.
As of today, WinnerOdds will adapt its odds to the market by offering Dynamic Minimum Profitable Odds.
How will affect this change to the results of WinnerOdds?
Our betting history will not change in practice because the history is built with the first bet placed by one of our users. Therefore, the new market information does not affect normally that first bet, unles this first bet is placed in one of the slow bookmakers after a change of the odds.
But, at user level, the results improve significantly because when the users visit the web page to get their picks, if they have no more value, the users will not bet on them. In the same way, new invest opportunities will show up and new notifications will be sent, in order to get profit from them.
To sum up, WinnerOdds was more efficient with opening odds or ‘earlies’ and less efficient with ‘closing lines’. With this change, we improbe significantly our results, by investing always taking into account the updated value.