WinnerOdds Football Beta
Most of you know of, or have used, our WinnerOdds Tennis algorithm and have seen the incredible results that have unfolded over the last five years. The Football system is almost identical in its simplicity and implementation.
Simply, the Football algorithm calculates real-time probabilities for upcoming Football matches, then compares the calculated probabilities against bookmaker odds – finding, isolating, and sharing ‘value bets’ on football markets all across the world.
We provide the prediction, bookmaker, and stake size (based on your current bankroll) – in a ‘done for you’ system.
While the WinnerOdds Football Beta has been active we have been constantly collecting and monitoring the results of the betting predictions individually and collectively.
We are going to use the bottom of this article as a weekly updated resource for current results, news, and status of the WinnerOdds Football Beta; for the full duration of the Beta period.
Keep reading for an explanation of the system and head to the bottom for ongoing results.
Who Has Access To WinnerOdds Football Beta?
WinnerOdds Football is a free access Beta, exclusive to WinnerOdds Tennis Members. The reason we don’t currently charge for the Football system is because it is still in the Beta testing phase.
Not until we have logged a statistically significant amount of bets and have completed the Beta period will we charge for WinnerOdds Football.
All of you, every WinnerOdds Tennis subscriber has access to WinnerOdds Football and will have for the duration of the Beta period
We urge you all not to treat WinnerOdds Football the same way you approach WinnerOdds Tennis. Our Tennis System is a top of the industry tried and tested, highly profitable betting system. We have the same aspirations, goals, and expectations for WinnerOdds Football, but again, we are still in the Beta testing period.
Please be sure to read all this full post before the test by yourself.
How It Works And How You Should Use It
Just like WinnerOdds Tennis.
At the top of your odds section, you will have a toggle that will seamlessly switch you between the Football and Tennis service.
While it will use the same type of interface, each sport will have its own odds and results page, with separated bankroll and tracking.
All picks will be in 1×2 format (Head to Head). For now…
If you’re a previous WinnerOdds user, you will already know how to use WinnerOdds Football, if you are a new subscriber you’ll have no trouble picking it up.
- Kambi (888sport, Paf, Starvegas, Unibet…)
Odds, Bankroll, And What To Expect
The average weighted odds we are betting in the football system are close to 2.5, higher than in tennis. In addition, as we will see in the results section, the expected yield is lower at the moment.
That implies that the risk we are taking is higher than in tennis. We strongly recommend to use a bankroll lower than the tennis bankroll.
We are working to improve our expectations, until then, a value around 500€ could be appropriate. Anyway, remember that you are betting at your own risk, and profit can never be guaranteed.
Updated Results (as of 27/01/2020)
We were waiting to log a minimum of 1000 bets before we published any results, because as you all know we can’t deduce any real conclusions based on smaller samples, due to the effects of variance.
However, unique to WinnerOdds Football the sample may actually have to be quite a bit larger before we are able to dissect our data, due to the higher average odds of our recommended bets.
But as many of our current WinnerOdds users are currently testing the system, and others who are considering using the system, have requested the results, we are going to provide and update them on a weekly basis, for maximum transparency.
The backtest was “trained” with odds from a few bookies and a large but limited amount of data. During the Beta period, we have learned about the influence of odds variations and how they ultimately affect the results.
The behaviour of the football odds is quite different from tennis odds, not only because there are more than two possible results, but also because the time between the early odds and the match time is much larger.
In this time, a lot of information is added (injuries, lineups, coach, other competition interferences, etc). We are constantly trying to improve our system, taking all these variations into account.
The results are the following:
You can download the excel file with all the info here (last update 27/01/2021).
As you can see, our system would be winning when betting with level stake and recommended stake at the first advised odds, according to the expected value estimation. The closing line value has been calculated using pinnacle odds of the matches where they are available, or the maximum odds from all the available bookies when pinnacle does not offer that match.
The real results show that with level stake the results are closer to the EV, and with the recommended stake the results are slightly below the EV. The EV of the recommended stake bets is lower than the level stake EV, but the average bet size of the recommended stake bets is much lower than the level stake bets, so that the risk is much lower and the EV is almost the same.
But what happens with the average odds bet by the users? Due to the fact that the odds with less value are increasing with time, there are more opportunities to bet at those odds and we have the opportunity to totalize those bets more often. On the other side, the lowering odds are not available much of the time and the total money bet at “steaming” odds is lower.
As a consequence of that, the average weighted odds bet by the users is slightly higher than the first advised odds. The values are 2.53 and 2.46 respectively. This effect was happening in tennis too, although is not so critical and we have several strategies to reduce the amount bet at growing odds (dynamic minimum profitable odds among other strategies). So we are trying to improve this too. But there are no free lunches, the more we select the moment at which we can place the bets, the less bets we will place.
There are also other issues that probably have reduced our EV: especially in big competitions where the public is an important factor, the probability of a home win has decreased from 45% to 40%. Although the system will learn this change, it takes some time and not all the leagues have been affected in the same way. Additionally, the teams show that, probably because of the lack of training or the extended period without playing, the teams are more equilibrated and the uncertainty (entropy) increases.
As you can see, we are learning continuously and we hope and expect our EV to improve, leading to much better results in the future. That’s why we are in a beta stage, why WinnerOdds Football is free and why we recommended a different and lower bankroll for football than for tennis.
We are also developing and collecting data from the Asian Handicaps and Over/Under markets and we will include them soon in our recommendations, so that despite being more cautious when selecting our recommendation bets, we still will have higher volume and enough bets.
We have also been placing our own bets, as always, putting skin in the game.
These are my personal results (27/01/2021) with a bankroll of 1000€, using all the available bookmakers (except those where I am restricted) and trying to be quick to place the bets after receiving the notifications (although I am still not used to finding the matches with some bookies).
If you have any questions or doubts, please write in the comments section or contact us at Contact Us
Developer Comments – What’s Next?
Other than the daily tweaks that are inherent in the Artificial Intelligence Algorithm, we also have some updates and goals for the system going into the future:
We are constantly working on improving the model and developing new strategies to complement the system. We will soon be offering Asian Handicap Lines and Over/Under predictions as the data continues to develop and we are able to prove their profitability.
New education and information regarding WinnerOdds will be developed to help users understand our systems better and educate new users on taking full advantage of WinnerOdds Tennis and WinnerOdds Football.
As the system grows and we gather your results and feedback we will look towards separating the Tennis and Football systems and moving towards a standalone product. This will not be considered until we have gathered 1000’s of bets and have absolute faith in the long-term profitability of WinnerOdds Football. As you probably all know we are hyper-aware of variance and more cautious that most.
After over a year of testing, tweaking, and development we couldn’t be more excited about the direction of WinnerOdds Football and WinnerOdds in general.
Enjoy the system, send us any feedback you have, and any further questions to Contact Us
Happy Value Betting, may the EV+ be with you.